Compounding the danger of a prolonged conflict is the reality of “trapped” spare capacity. While the global market normally relies on spare capacity in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait to buffer against price shocks, Struyven explained that those barrels typically must flow through the Strait of Hormuz to reach global buyers. Consequently, as long as the Strait remains compromised, that spare capacity cannot be physically deployed. Furthermore, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) could be used as a textbook response to sustained disruptions, the SPR currently holds around 415 million barrels—more than 200 million barrels lower than it was prior to the 2022 energy crisis.
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"The policy environment has shifted toward prioritizing AI competitiveness and economic growth, while safety-oriented discussions have yet to gain meaningful traction at the federal level," the company wrote. "We remain convinced that effective government engagement on AI safety is both necessary and achievable, and we aim to continue advancing a conversation grounded in evidence, national security interests, economic competitiveness, and public trust. But this is proving to be a long-term project—not something that is happening organically as AI becomes more capable or crosses certain thresholds."，更多细节参见safew官方下载